Will It Be a Clinton-Warren Ticket?

Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren made a joint appearance at a campaign rally in Cincinnati, Ohio on Monday. Some observers felt that it was a trial run for Warren joining Clinton on the Democratic ticket, and she did not disappoint those looking for her to take on Donald Trump. 

Donald Trump is a small, insecure money-grubber who fights for nobody but himself.
—Sen. Elizabeth Warren 

Clinton fans the flames

Hillary Clinton did nothing to put out the recent vice presidential speculation for Warren. In Clinton’s speech, she made reference to their inauguration day. 

Let's provide debt relief as soon as we can, as soon as we start to work, Elizabeth. We'll take the day off for the inauguration, and then the Senate, the Congress, the White House; we're going to get to work to give students and their families’ relief from this debt.
—Hillary Clinton

It is not uncommon for presidential candidates to ‘leak’ the names of various people on the vice presidential shortlist whether they are actually being considered or not. It makes prospective running mates feel important and gauges public opinion of the potential ticket. There is no doubt that the possibility of Warren as the vice presidential pick has excited many progressive Democrats and Clinton risks disappointing them should she not select Warren, particularly after Hillary’s warm remarks towards Warren. 

Warren would appeal to supporters of Bernie 

Selecting Warren would appeal to the supporters of Bernie Sanders and could energize them to Clinton’s campaign. Sen. Warren was the leader of the progressive wing of the Democrat Party before Sanders appeared on the scene, and selecting Warren would placate Sen. Sander’s concerns about the Party platform and likely lead to his endorsement of the ticket.

A Democratic ticket featuring two women would magnify the historic nature of the 2016 election and could enhance enthusiasm among women and younger voters. 

Clinton is already the first woman to lead a major-party presidential ticket. A ticket featuring two women would underscore the historic nature of the choice voters would face in November and could spark enthusiasm about a presidential nominee who, despite her barrier-breaking primary win, still inspires mistrust and a lack of passion among some voters, including many Democrats.
— USA Today

A Republican would replace Warren in Senate

That’s the upside in picking Elizabeth Warren. However, there are some significant drawbacks to selecting Sen. Warren. She does not bring any demographic advantage to the ticket as Warren’s home state of Massachusetts is already safety in Clinton’s win column. The state has a Republican governor who would appoint a Republican to replace Warren in the Senate, making it less likely the Democrats could gain control of the Senate. 

Furthermore, Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren do not have a particularly warm relationship. Warren was the lone female Democratic senator not to endorse Clinton during the primaries. 

Trust me when I tell you that Warren withholding her support — and making sure that people knew she was still withholding her support — did not and does not sit well in Clintonworld. Warren was already regarded by many within the Democratic establishment — including a decent-sized chunk of the Obamans — as a bit of a grandstanding, holier-than-thou figure.
—Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post

Geography could dissuade Clinton from picking Warren 

A recent CNN/ORC poll showed only lukewarm enthusiasm for Warren. Only 34% of Democrats felt Warren would be the ideal running mate for Clinton while 54% said they’d prefer someone else on the ticket. 

Another reason that could dissuade Clinton from picking Warren is geography. A ticket made up of two NE liberal Democrats who live in states less than 200 miles apart could make the rest of the country feel ignored. Presidential tickets have historically been geographically balanced although the Clinton-Gore ticket in 1992 (Arkansas borders Tennessee) was an exception

All in all, the disadvantages of picking Warren to join the ticket would seem to outweigh the advantages, but there is no denying it would be a bold and historic choice on the part of Hillary. The country will learn Clinton’s decision is less than a month when the Democrats hold their convention in Philadelphia beginning on July 25. 

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