Donald Trump has charged into the lead in a number of national polls released over the weekend. The tone at today’s opening of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia is going to be one of shock at Trump’s surge over the past week.
As recently as July 1 Hillary Clinton had a comfortable 5 point lead over Donald Trump in the Real Clear Politics average. Today, Trump has moved into the lead. Trump’s lead in individual polls is even more striking. The CNN/ORC poll has Trump ahead by +3; the LA Times/USC has Donald in the lead by +4. All polls confirm that Trump has gotten a significant bump in the past two weeks.
FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 57.5% chance of winning
For the first time, Nate Silver’s respected FiveThirtyEight website has given Trump the lead in its election forecast. Trump is given a 57.5% chance of winning the White House compared to Hillary Clinton at 42.5%.
CNN reported that Trump got a 6-point bounce after the convention which is the highest post-convention boost since 2000. In a four-way match with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included, Trump’s lead over Clinton grew to 6 points – 44% to 39%.
Independents move to Trump
The CNN poll showed that Trump’s increased support came mostly from independents. Following the GOP convention, 43% of Independents said they were more likely to back Trump, while 41% stated that they were less likely. Pre-convention, only 31% of independents, gave Trump their support.
Other notable takeaways from the CNN poll include an increase in Trump’s favorability rating up to 46% from 39%. By double-digit margins, voters have more confidence in Trump ability to handle key issues such as the economy and terrorism.
While the polls will continue to shift between now and November, there is no question that Donald Trump came out of the Republican Convention in better shape than he went in. The question will be to see if Hillary Clinton can gain a similar bump from the Democrat Convention this week.