Donald Trump’s Surging Poll Numbers
Just weeks after obituaries were being written about Donald Trump’s presidential campaign it has taken on a new life. A series of polls released over the past few day show Trump gaining on Hillary Clinton and, in some states, overtaking her.
On June 26, the trusted Real Clear Politics poll average had Clinton beating Trump by a margin of 6.8 points. As of July 13, that margin had been cut in half to a Clinton lead of just 3.1 points. A New York Times/CBS News poll released on July 14 showed the two candidates in a tie with each getting 40% of the vote. A Rasmussen Reports poll also released on July 14 has Trump leading Clinton by a margin of 44% to 37%. Finally, an Economist/YouGov poll had Hillary ahead by just two points 45% to 43%.
Trump makes advances in key battleground states
On July 13, Quinnipiac University released several battleground state polls that showed Trump gaining ground. In Florida Trump was ahead 42% to 39% and was leading in Pennsylvania by a margin of 43% to Clinton’s 41%. Quinnipiac had Ohio in a tie, with each candidate being supported by 41% of the voters.
Heading into the two parties' conventions, the race for President is a dead heat, a change from last month when Hillary Clinton led by six points. Forty percent of registered voters now say they will back Clinton (a dip of three points), while 40 percent will vote for Trump (a bump up of three points). A month ago, Clinton led Trump 43 to 37 percent.
— CBS News
Twenty-four percent of Hispanic voters say they’ll vote for Trump
There was also some surprising news regarding Trump’s support among registered Hispanic voters. A Pew Research poll released last week showed Trump’s support with Hispanic voters is on par with the last two GOP presidential nominees. The survey showed that 24% of Hispanic voters are supporting Trump while 66% are supporting Hillary Clinton. Given the focus on Trump’s remarks about immigration and Mexico, this level of support is surprisingly high.
It’s easy to poke holes in individual polls, but when you lump them together it becomes easier to spot changing trends. There is no doubt that the trend is currently moving in Trump’s favor and he’s on an upswing. How long that will last is anyone’s guess, but right now things are looking brighter for Donald Trump than they did just a few weeks ago.