Done. Finished. In the bag. Trump’s rump roasted. Well, actually, the reference to Trump’s roasted rump is from a mid-August post in The Art Newspaper which published a photo of nude Donald Trump sculptures that popped up in various cities during August. But, you get the idea. Many are ready to declare that Hillary Clinton has already won the election.
Clinton wins bake-off
The Clinton campaign certainly believes that they have the election won. Most mainstream media outlets think it’s a done deal. The stock market is factoring in a Clinton victory, and calculating what it will mean for the economy. If there was any doubt, Melania Trump’s star shaped sugar cookies lost to Clinton’s chocolate chip cookies in the Family Circle Presidential Cookie Poll by a 3 to 1 margin.
Odds of Clinton winning at 87%
The FiveThirtyEight election forecast now gives Mrs. Clinton an 87% chance of winning to only 13% for Mr. Trump. Those are the best odds that the site has given Clinton since it began tracking a head-to-head race between Clinton and Trump last June. Clinton has taken the lead in all the key battleground states. Real Clear Politics supports the same conclusion, as Hillary Clinton has jumped a 6.2-point lead over Trump in its latest compilation of poll averages.
For Republicans, this is a time to head to the lifeboats. The GOP has been preparing plans to run away from the top of the ticket in an attempt to save the senate and now it’s too late to replace their nominee. — The Daily Beast
Indeed, over the weekend, a number of key Republicans renounced their support of Trump and some called on him to resign. However, by Tuesday some were having second doubts as they heard from their constituents, and at least four of those who earlier decided to withdraw their support have now climbed back on board.
Clinton stays above the fray
As she showed in the second debate, Mrs. Clinton’s strategy, for now, is to stay in the background and not make any waves. Her demeanor during Sunday’s debate was one of bemused scorn as Trump attempted to attack her. While she is maintaining her campaign schedule, the campaign is letting others lead the attack against Trump and allowing Hillary Clinton to stay above the fray.
Over orchestrated attack
There are, however, some risks to this strategy. For one, camp Clinton could be overestimating the depth of the damage against Mr. Trump caused by a ten-year-old videotape. The attack line against Trump could even begin to create a sympathy vote for Trump if it appears to be overly orchestrated.
The kompromat attack on Mr. Trump clearly has its orchestrated elements—witness the readiness of Mrs. Clinton’s media allies to follow up her mention of the offended 1996 Miss Universe in the first debate. Witness the media’s seamless leap to treat the infantile sex banter of two man-babies on an upholstered bus as the equivalent of “sexual assault.” — The Wall Street Journal
Lost in the immediate aftermath of the release of the Trump tape, was the avalanche of hacked emails from Clinton's campaign staff that started appearing last Friday and continued this week. To date, the emails have not gained widespread attention, and the lead storyline continues to be on blaming the Russians for the hacking rather than the actual content of the emails. The Clinton campaign has not denied the accuracy of the emails.
Slow drip of hacked emails
Nevertheless, the slow drip of these emails has the potential to be damaging to Clinton, particularly if more continue to surface. So far there has not been any ‘smoking gun’ in these emails, but they do reinforce the perception of some that Mrs. Clinton has been less than forthcoming with the American public over the years.
As of today, the election is clearly Hillary Clinton’s to lose and leaves Donald Trump with a steep path to have any chance for an upset. But, with over three weeks left until the election, there remains an opportunity for yet another of the momentum altering events that have been the hallmark of the 2016 presidential race.