It would be unprecedented to deny the nomination to the person elected in the primaries & seems a long shot at best.
It has not been a good couple of weeks for Donald Trump. Last week, CNN headlined the story: How the GOP could cut ties with Donald Trump. The story referenced renewed talk in the Republican Party on how to find a way to derail Trump at the July convention. It would be unprecedented to deny the nomination to the person elected in the primaries & seems a long shot at best.
Trump’s falling poll numbers
What is spurring the anti-Trump conversation are Trump’s falling poll numbers. The most recent Real Clear Politics weekly average saw Hillary jump to a 5.8-point lead over Trump. Two weeks ago, Clinton’s lead was under 2 points. A Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump gaining the dubious honor of having the highest unfavorable rating of any candidate of a major party in history at 70%. This is a 10-point increase in Trump’s negative ratings from a month ago. The only good news for Trump is that Clinton’s unfavorable numbers continue to rise as well, albeit at a slower rate as 55% of the electorate view her unfavorably.
Could the GOP lose the House and Senate in 2016?
Democrats are slightly favored to win back a majority of the seats in the Senate this year. Until recently, the House looked safe for the GOP, but fears of a landslide Clinton victory in November is causing growing concern among Republican House leaders that their majority in the House could be at risk.
Donald Trump is on the verge of two things once thought to be impossible: winning the Republican presidential nomination, and putting Republicans’ historically large House majority in danger.
—Theodoric Meyer and Elena Schneider in Politico
The Democrats would need a net gain of 30 seats in the House to win control, and that’s a steep hill to climb. Still, if Clinton were to win by the margin predicted in recent polls, her coattails could be long enough to swing the race in key districts to Democrats.
It’s a long ways to November
It’s a long ways to November and much can and will happen between now and then that can change the complexion of the race. Polls this far out are useful for showing trends and right now the trend is moving in Clinton’s direction. However, as we’ve seen in the past couple of weeks the public and polls are fickle, and the storyline a month from now could just as well be about Trump’s resurgence and Hillary’s fall.