Along with his gains in recent national poll numbers, Donald Trump has also expanded his potential paths to victory in the Electoral College. The Real Clear Politics Electoral Spread, which had Hillary Clinton 118 Electoral votes ahead of Mr. Trump in mid-August, had narrowed her lead to 36 votes last week.
The poll map divides up the total 538 votes in the Elector College as 200 solid votes for Hillary Clinton, 164 votes for Donald Trump, and 174 votes in the toss-up category.
Reuters/Ipsos gives Clinton 60% chance of winning
A survey by the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project supports the general mood that the election has tightened. The project estimates that if the election were held today, Clinton has a 60 percent chance of winning by 18 electoral votes. A week ago, the project gave Clinton an 83 percent chance of winning.
Politico says electoral votes tied
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would apparently win roughly as many electoral votes as Hillary Clinton — who held a commanding lead in early August and seemed to be closing off all possible Trump routes to 270 electoral votes. But state polling averages, which can be lagging indicators, are beginning to show Trump in the lead. According to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Trump is now ahead in Iowa and Ohio — and he’s tied with Clinton in vote-rich Florida. — Politico
Clinton campaign manager reassures supporters
Clinton’s campaign manager Robby Mook sent out a memo on Tuesday that sought to reassure Clinton’s supporters. Mook pointed out that Mrs. Clinton has a number of ways to get to 270 electoral votes while Donald Trump has only a few. The fact that the campaign felt compelled to send out the memo is indicative of concern.
Here’s the story that no poll can tell: Hillary Clinton has many paths to 270 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has very few. Hillary is nearly certain to win 16 “blue” states, including Washington D.C., which will garner her 191 electoral votes. If we add the five states that FiveThirtyEight.com gives Hillary a 70% or greater chance of winning (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin), Hillary only needs ten more electoral votes. — Robby Mook, Clinton campaign manager
Trump has the momentum in September
Mook is most likely correct in his assessment as of today. But, the nearly universal view is that Donald Trump has had the momentum in September. The question is whether he can continue it until November 8.